Study Confirms that Ignorance Builds Confidence

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wserra
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Study Confirms that Ignorance Builds Confidence

Post by wserra »

It is an article of faith around here that TPs are too dysfunctional to understand their dysfunction. It seems logical, and is confirmed here empirically on a daily basis - but I never realized that there is actually peer-reviewed literature confirming the existence of the "ignorant are more confident than the wise" syndrome.

Well, there is. Researchers at the Department of Psychology at Cornell published this paper in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology in 1999 - long after folks like Schiff's acolytes had provided plenty of evidence to those of us who waste time following them.

While the promotors add the element (always helpful) of the con, this article fits the mass of posters to the various boards discussed here to a "T". Read the authors' predictions:
Prediction 1. Incompetent individuals, compared with their more competent peers, will dramatically overestimate their ability and performance relative to objective criteria.

Prediction 2. Incompetent individuals will suffer from deficient metacognitive skills, in that they will be less able than their more competent peers to recognize competence when they see it–be it their own or anyone else's.

Prediction 3. Incompetent individuals will be less able than their more competent peers to gain insight into their true level of performance by means of social comparison information. In particular, because of their difficulty recognizing competence in others, incompetent individuals will be unable to use information about the choices and performances of others to form more accurate impressions of their own ability.

Prediction 4. The incompetent can gain insight about their shortcomings, but this comes (paradoxically) by making them more competent, thus providing them the metacognitive skills necessary to be able to realize that they have performed poorly.
Sound like anybody we know?
"A wise man proportions belief to the evidence."
- David Hume
Famspear
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Post by Famspear »

Here's more on the Dunning-Kruger effect:

viewtopic.php?t=906
"My greatest fear is that the audience will beat me to the punch line." -- David Mamet
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wserra
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Post by wserra »

Oops. Sorry. I didn't realize when I saw the article that there had been a recent thread on it.

The idea that I don't spend enough time here is truly scary.
"A wise man proportions belief to the evidence."
- David Hume
Famspear
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Post by Famspear »

Ah, but the fact that you and I both have recognized the relationship between the Dunning-Kruger effect and the problems faced by tax protesters is evidence that, in the vast universe of of hydrocarbon based units, you and I represent advanced life forms.

Or something like that.
"My greatest fear is that the audience will beat me to the punch line." -- David Mamet
Judge Roy Bean
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Post by Judge Roy Bean »

Summary:

Ignorance is bliss.
The Honorable Judge Roy Bean
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