How to start world war III?

[Judge Roy Bean]

From a purely practical world-as-we-know-it standpoint, when and how do we neutralize North Korea and Iran?

Before leaping to any knee-jerk ideas like vaporizing their capitals (hey, works for me), think in terms of having to write the definitive fictional scenario, complete with good guys and bad guys; who does what to whom and what the outcomes are, i.e.:

A whacks B, B responds to A, C does something that D doesn't like so E does something to help A and B reacts to D's reaction.

Have fun!

[The Observer]

Both countries are problematic in the sense that China and Russia have ties to these countries in terms of political, economic and/or strategic interests. So how would these countries react to an American attack on either or both countries?

In the case of Iran, both Russia and China would provide arms, supplies and advisors. Both countries would also look to exert pressure on American interests elsewhere in an attempt to divert the US' attention, weaken our resolve and to generate world opinion against us.

Militarily, for China or Russia to provide direct intervention, it becomes a logistical nightmare. For starters, their fleets having to operate far from any capable port/base cannot hope to sever our own lines of communications, meaning we can control the littoral areas of the Iranian coast and keep our forces in supply. Providing air cover for Iran is more of an option for Russia than China, but neither nation could hope to win a protracted air war and gain air superiority. While both could provide ground troops, it is again an issue of logistics in dragging equipment, supplies and men thousands of miles across terrain with little in the way of modern roads or railways that could support a long-term commitment to Iran. So, for both countries, it would be an expensive effort and no guarantee that they would win in the long run.

So, instead, their goal would be to the make the cost as high as possible for the US in terms of invasion. So by providing the best that they could offer in ground-air defense systems, anti-ship missiles, and the like, Russia and China would be minimizing their own losses, gaining a profit by selling their military hardware to Iran, maximizing the chances that the US would take more losses than it could politically afford, gain favor with Iran, and hope to improve their own world opinion.

And what would an American attack on Iran look like?

1) US Navy moves in to control the Persian Gulf and establish air superiority. Purpose of this is to (a) deny Iranian access and flow of their oil, thereby hurting their ability to fund their defense, (b) to protect the flow of oil in the Gulf for the other exporters in the area and (c) to keep open a possibility of establishing beachheads at Bandar Abbas and/or Abadan to further cripple the Iranian ability to export oil.

2) An air war would be launched similar to what happened in Iraq I and II. The purpose here would be to (a) destroy Iranian air defenses, (b) destroy what is left of the Iranian Air Force, gaining air superiority, and (c) to destroy infrastructure in order to hamper communication and movement of Iranian ground forces.

3) US ground forces would establish and build up at least two columns for a invasion from across the Iraqi border aimed at Tehran, Tabriz and other major cities in the northeast of Iran in order to (a) capture the nuclear plants, (b) to cut of the leadership of Iran from its people, and c) to cut off communications with the rest of the Iranian ground forces.

I don't foresee this going nuclear unless Iran somehow cobbles a nuke together and tries to use it. If so, I cannot see Russia and China willing to extend a nuclear umbrella.

[Florida]

I would start by hacking into the W.O.P.R. and letting Joshua come up with a plan.

[Nikki]

From a purely practical world-as-we-know-it standpoint, when and how do we neutralize North Korea and Iran?

...

1 - Seal the DMZ and seriously fortify it to block any invasion

2 - Interdict the coast against all shiping, commercial or military (including sinking any submarine that comes more than six inches out to sea)

3 - Twiddle fingers until country reverts to the stone age on its own.

4 - Issue brooms and mops to South Korea

[Number Six]

These countries are not our neighbors or our problems. If the Arab and other Islamic countries are so concerned with an outlaw Iran, let them pay to fix the problem or pay us the billions it has cost the U.S. to do their dirty work. Look at all the faces of military young men and women whose caskets have come back from Iraq and Afghanistan and the tens of thousands others who will be maimed for life, and make a personal sacrifice in their regard. The narcissistic rich manipulative, expoitative Bush-types can somehow live with themselves and the consequences for the military adventures they have been four-square behind. They haven't suffered any financial losses, their kids aren't putting their lives on the line.

Some useful quotes from Henry Kissinger on his theories of power politics:

"The illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer."

"The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose."

"The security of Israel is a moral imperative for all free peoples."

"The Vietnam War required us to emphasize the national interest rather than abstract principles. What President Nixon and I tried to do was unnatural. And that is why we didn't make it."

"There cannot be a crisis next week. My schedule is already full."

"Whatever must happen ultimately should happen immediately."

"While we should never give up our principles, we must also realize that we cannot maintain our principles unless we survive."

"Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac."

[The Observer]

These countries are not our neighbors or our problems

Wrong on both counts. Given the fact that both of these nations have been working on developing nuclear fission and have been working on missile technology makes them both our neighbors and our problems. To simply pretend that they are not a threat is both foolish and dangerous.

If the Arab and other Islamic countries are so concerned with an outlaw Iran, let them pay to fix the problem or pay us the billions it has cost the U.S. to do their dirty work

How do you propose for an Arab country that has not developed nuclear technology to stand up against a nuclear Iran?

Look at all the faces of military young men and women whose caskets have come back from Iraq and Afghanistan and the tens of thousands others who will be maimed for life, and make a personal sacrifice in their regard.

And how many coffins do you think there will be and how many mutilated citizens will be after a nuke hits here in the US?

The narcissistic rich manipulative, expoitative Bush-types can somehow live with themselves and the consequences for the military adventures they have been four-square behind. They haven't suffered any financial losses, their kids aren't putting their lives on the line.

And I suppose you think you can live safely and not have to worry about the consequences of not dealing with a nuclear Iran.

But as they say, ignorance is bliss.

[The Observer]

I didn't make any comments directly on North Korea, primarily because of the unique situation that it has in bordering on both China and Russia, as well as its long-standing policy with China. For over 1000 years China and Korea have had an understanding that China will respect Korea's internal decisions and Korea will allow China to dictate foreign policy for Korea in return for China guaranteeing Korea's borders. An example of this was China's involvement in the Korean War and the willingness to commit troops to avoid the Korean peninsula becoming a hostile Western sphere of influence. Any attack by the US on North Korea will certainly bring China into the fray.

Therefore, there is little that the US could do militarily in neutralizing North Korea without igniting a full-scale ware, a war that would benefit Russia as arms dealer and bystander. A blockade of the Korean peninsula would be a trigger as well. While Chinese naval power cannot match the US, they have the technology to extract losses that could not be prevented. Given that the Chinese have been building up their naval strike forces (partly so that they threaten an invasion of Taiwan, partly so that they contest American influence/power in the Western/Southwestern Pacific, partly so that they can guarantee see lanes to the oil sources in the Middle East), there is a possibility that they could pull off a few surprises. Furthermore, a blockade would do little in terms of hurting North Korea since Russia and China would be more than willing to ensure that goods still would enter NK.

As others have pointed out, there is little we can do but to keep the economic screws on and wait for the North Koreans to self-destruct. What we should do is to prepare an economic plan for the unification of the Koreas, and a diplomatic agreement offering to China that a unified Korean peninsula will become a neutral non-aligned country. This should satisfy China's interests and will offer another trading partner that will not represent a threat to her borders.

[Doktor Avalanche]

As others have pointed out, there is little we can do but to keep the economic screws on and wait for the North Koreans to self-destruct. What we should do is to prepare an economic plan for the unification of the Koreas, and a diplomatic agreement offering to China that a unified Korean peninsula will become a neutral non-aligned country. This should satisfy China's interests and will offer another trading partner that will not represent a threat to her borders.

There already is - but that's as much as I can say about it.

And I already know what will happen if the ball goes up in Korea. Feel free to speculate but I can neither confirm nor deny anything.

[Doktor Avalanche]

1 - Seal the DMZ and seriously fortify it to block any invasion

Already done and should hold against the bulkwark of a North Korean invasion (unless they've dug new tunnels).

2 - Interdict the coast against all shiping, commercial or military (including sinking any submarine that comes more than six inches out to sea)

We do that now and we definitely sink submarines any chance we get. The shipping corridors between North and South are heavily mined and 7th Fleet in cooperation with the ROK Navy is on the case.

3 - Twiddle fingers until country reverts to the stone age on its own.

We've been doing that and North Korea is just about there. Rinse, lather, repeat.

4 - Issue brooms and mops to South Korea

That's precisely what we intend to do. If we have to go into North Korea the plan is to put as much of a Korean face on the mission as possible.

[The Observer]

We do that now and we definitely sink submarines any chance we get. The shipping corridors between North and South are heavily mined and 7th Fleet in cooperation with the ROK Navy is on the case.

I believe Nikki was advocating a total interdiction of the Korean coast, and not just South Korean waters. I am not aware of the US Navy conducting any hostile actions in NK waters.

[Doktor Avalanche]

We do that now and we definitely sink submarines any chance we get. The shipping corridors between North and South are heavily mined and 7th Fleet in cooperation with the ROK Navy is on the case.

I believe Nikki was advocating a total interdiction of the Korean coast, and not just South Korean waters. I am not aware of the US Navy conducting any hostile actions in NK waters.

Per armistice, any incursion beyond the Northern Limit Line would be an act of war.

So...no, we're not conducting any hostile actions in North Korean waters and neither are the South Koreans.

But what I am saying is that if today we or the ROK Navy spots a North Korean submarine in South Korean waters we're sinking it. Period. End of story.

[Doktor Avalanche]

U.S. Force Korea (USFK), the combined American air, ground, and naval forces, will transfer its wartime command authority to South Korea by 2012. The peacetime command was transferred to Korea in 1994, and transition of the wartime operational control (OPCON) is expected to be completed on April 17, 2012. The current ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) will be disestablished. The two have agreed on a slow drawdown in the number of U.S.troops, as well as a redeployment of American forces away from populated areas close to the northern border.

[fortinbras]

More than North Korea using a nuke, I am concerned about NK selling a nuke.

By every measurement, NK is financially on the ropes, with a populace so consistently underfed that the average North Korean is about five inches shorter than the average South Korean. Jong Il wants terribly to be a nuclear power but he knows that actually launching a nuke will probably get him and most of NK vaporized within an hour or two. So he's spending his country's last dime to become a nuclear power ... and as soon as that's accomplished he'll have to deal with the starvation and poverty. That's a sure-fire situation where he will sell a nuclear explosive or three to whomever can pay a billion or so in ready cash; they don't even have to be real governments, Al-Qaeda can probably afford a bomb, maybe the Somali warlords too.

I don't see quite the same risk with Iran, but it's a troubled country with an unstable govt controlled by unstable fanatics.

[Judge Roy Bean]

More than North Korea using a nuke, I am concerned about NK selling a nuke.
...
I don't see quite the same risk with Iran, but it's a troubled country with an unstable govt controlled by unstable fanatics.

NK has probably already delivered the technology for one or more nukes to the enemies of the US. All they need is the proper materials.

It will be a coordinated strike; hold the US hostage by threatening to ignite one in D.C. while Iran attacks Israel.

[Judge Roy Bean]

...

A sovrun citizen wet dream.........

Seriously though, how is Iran going to attack Israel? A few ballistic missiles? And Israel replies in kind, only with more. Sounds like a less than zero sum game for Iran. And let us not forget that the fallout from a nuclear strike on Israel would contaminate parts of Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and especially the Palestinians. How do you think the Arab nations in the region are going to react to non-Arabs (the Iranians) poisoning tens, hundreds or thousands of thousands of Arabs?

No, I think the Iranians want nukes to be the BMOC in the area. I worry more about the Pakistanis doing something nuclear stupid

Iran wouldn't use nukes to attack Israel, just missiles, missiles and more missiles and if Israel were to respond with a nuke, 'poof' goes some major port city in the US.

[bmielke]

I think we have lost our chance with Iran. The B2'a and B52's should have struck before they fueled the reactor.

I truely doubt we could invade, I don't believe the American people have the stomach for another long war without ,ajor provocation. The best answer so far is to exersise control over the Persian Gulf, and three years ago we might have done it, but it isn't going to happen with the president we have now.

NK is dying. maybe not today or tomorrow, but I doubt they last 5 years. China will get tired of supporting them and then they will fail. I would not be surprised to see Kim Jong Il die and the situation slowly resolve itself.

[Agent Observer]

Seriously though, how is Iran going to attack Israel? A few ballistic missiles? And Israel replies in kind, only with more. Sounds like a less than zero sum game for Iran. And let us not forget that the fallout from a nuclear strike on Israel would contaminate parts of Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and especially the Palestinians. How do you think the Arab nations in the region are going to react to non-Arabs (the Iranians) poisoning tens, hundreds or thousands of thousands of Arabs?

No, I think the Iranians want nukes to be the BMOC in the area. I worry more about the Pakistanis doing something nuclear stupid

The problem with this general outlook is rooted in basic psychology. We have a tendency to assume the rest of the world views things as we do. That is simply not true, and from first hand experience, there is not a more diametrically opposite culture to the western outlook than a predominantly Muslim culture. The leadership of Iran is even farther off the charts. There have been a number of media reports indicating several Middle Eastern countries have quietly given the green light to take down Iran because they understand the threat they pose. Ahmadinejad is a crazy zealot and has openly stated he intends to bring back the 12th Imam. I pulled out an excerpt from http://www.allaboutpopularissues.org/12th-imam.htm below.

If Iran gets nukes I believe Ahmadinejad will use them. They don't have to be on a missile. Again from personal experience, I've been up close and personal with nuclear warheads capable of leveling an entire city, and they'd easily fit in a car... Or a boat. That boat could then sail to any port city.

The 12th Imam: Who Is The 12th Imam?
Within the Shiite, (which is predominate in Iran), it is prophesied that there is a coming 12th Imam who is the great spiritual savior. This Imam is named Abu al-Qasim Muhammad or also called Muhammad al Mahdi. He is said to have been born the son of the 11th Imam, Hasan Al-Askari and his wife, the granddaughter of an Emperor. There are conflicting statements of her name being either Fatima or Nargis Khatoon.

Most accounts of the story say that al Mahdi went into hiding as a child around the age of 5 years (about 13th Century). It said he has been ‘in hiding’ in caves ever since but will supernaturally return just before the Day of Judgment. According to the Hadith the criteria for the Hidden Imam are:

* He will be a descendant of Muhammad and the son of Fatima
* Will have a broad forehead and pointed nose
* Will return just before the end of the world
* His appearance will be preceded by a number of prophetic events during 3 years of horrendous world chaos, tyranny and oppression
* Will escape from Madina to Mekkah, thousands will pledge allegiance to him
* Will rule over the Arabs and the world for 7 years
* Will eradicate all tyranny and oppression bringing harmony and total peace
* Will lead a prayer in Mekkah which Jesus will be at his side and follow in

Remarkably, the 12th Imam theory plays heavily into the world’s current concerns with Iran. The Shiite Muslim President of Iran, Ahmadinejad, is deeply committed to the Islamic Messiah, al Mahdi. There have been many through the years claiming to be the Hidden Imam but Ahmadinejad believes he is yet to come. He claims that he is to personally prepare the world for the coming Mahdi. In order to save the world, it must be in a state of chaos and subjugation. Ahmadinejad claims he was “directed by Allah to pave the way for the glorious appearance of the Mahdi”. This apocalyptic directive includes some very scary proclamations.

[Burzmali]

There is a problem with this question. Today, the major powers (Russia, China, USA, Japan, and the EU) and other major players (India, Brazil, Argentina) have such intertwined economies that unless an absolute lunatic takes over one of the aforementioned countries, they are not going to go to war with each other. It would be economically ruinous.

So now you are left with minor, regional players - and while they may have a reason to go to war, they are not going to drag everybody and their uncle in with them (no replays of the start of WW I).

Alternate possiblity is an economic war that goes hot. The theory goes that gulf between the 1st and 3rd worlds widens and after a spark (i.e. a cure for AIDS that relies on too much 1st world technology for 3rd world nations to afford even with aid) a group of minor nations bands together and simply steals what they need from patents and by bribing away key personnel to offer the service that the 1st world is "holding hostage" at a much reduced price. After this initial incident, the new alliance continues to "liberate" the first world's technology and actively competing with the original developers. In order support their own businesses, one of the 1st world nations launches strikes against the government-sponsored piracy operations, only to find out that the pirated PS3 chips can be used to make servicable cruise missiles and the war spirals from there.

The conflict expands as more and more 1st world nations get drawn in, but they spend more effort trying to ensure they end up on the heap when the dust settles than fighting their 3rd world opponents. It finally evolves into a World War when one 1st world nation attacks another over allegations of the former's material support to the latter's 3rd world opponent.

There you have it, WW3, or at least the backstory for Bruce Sterling's next novel.

[The Observer]

...a group of minor nations bands together and simply steals what they need from patents and by bribing away key personnel to offer the service that the 1st world is "holding hostage" at a much reduced price.

That has been going on for years in Asia, in particular with China. The counterfeiting of products with patents has been a continuous problem for the last 25 years or so, not to mention the repeated theft of military and tech secrets from the West as well. I have yet to see anyone get upset enough to suggest war over this issue. What is more likely to happen is for countries to establish an electronic economic system that will replace physical currency and thus can "lock" out those countries who refuse to crack down on the counterfeiters.

[Burzmali]

...a group of minor nations bands together and simply steals what they need from patents and by bribing away key personnel to offer the service that the 1st world is "holding hostage" at a much reduced price.

That has been going on for years in Asia, in particular with China. The counterfeiting of products with patents has been a continuous problem for the last 25 years or so, not to mention the repeated theft of military and tech secrets from the West as well. I have yet to see anyone get upset enough to suggest war over this issue. What is more likely to happen is for countries to establish an electronic economic system that will replace physical currency and thus can "lock" out those countries who refuse to crack down on the counterfeiters.

The crux of the matter is government sponsorship. It's like if Chavez decided to pump some oil revenue into running servers that like you download any movie you want for $0.25. It isn't a matter of convincing the foriegn government to crack down on piracy, the government is the pirate.